Pattullo Bridge replacement is one of a group of major construction projects due to begin in B.C. (Black Press Media)

Big construction projects to drive big migration to B.C. in 2020

Forestry, housing to slow growth, says credit union forecast

Pipelines, LNG Canada, the Pattullo Bridge replacement and a new Vancouver subway are all set to drive a big increase in interprovincial migration to B.C. starting next year, Central 1 Credit Union says in its latest economic forecast.

Coupled with Site C dam construction that is reaching its peak, these major projects are expected to help push interprovincial migration into B.C. from 3,400 people this year to more than 12,000 in 2020, says the organization representing credit unions in B.C. and Ontario.

B.C.’s economic growth is leading the country, and the pace of growth is expected to slow from 2.7 per cent in 2019 to near one per cent by 2020, according to the forecast.

While internal signs for B.C. are strong, global economic conditions continue to cast a shadow. A U.S.-China trade war with Canada entangled, American trade actions against softwood lumber and turmoil in the European Union with the impending exit of Britain are risk factors in the coming years.

Housing construction continues at a fast pace, with a record second quarter for B.C. housing starts, but that is mainly a result of pre-sale condos in earlier years, said Bryan Yu, deputy chief economist for Central 1.

“Home ownership demand, owing to federal mortgage stress tests and provincial government tax measures, has dragged the resale market into recession-like conditions since early 2018, with price levels adjusting lower accordingly, says B.C. Economic Outlook 2019-2022. “Metro Vancouver is at the centre of the market correction, with sales trending at 2012 levels and price declines nearly 10 per cent from peak.”

RELATED: B.C. housing market slows, prices fall in 2019

RELATED: B.C. mayors call for federal forest industry aid

Other limiting factors are the ongoing slump in the B.C. forest industry and the availability of skilled labour as people retire in greater numbers. The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to four per cent in the coming years.

Are there going to be enough skilled people in the rest of Canada to move to B.C. for jobs? Yu says there are.

“The economic conditions are relatively slower in Alberta at the current time, and with these major projects we do see a strong labour market in B.C.,” Yu said in an interview with Black Press. “There are always concerns about affordability issues in the [urban] region.”

Workers and their families are part of a wider trend in B.C. population growth, with international immigrants being the main source. From 2019 to 2021, B.C. is forecast to grow by an average of 60,000 people annually, driving significant demand in retail consumption and housing.


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislature

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Comments are closed

Just Posted

North Cowichan mayor answers questions about new RCMP detachment

The current building went up in 1980, when there were 30 people working there.

B.C. Supreme Court dismisses claim against Island Corridor Foundation

Snaw-Naw-As (Nanoose) First Nation was seeking return of reserve land as railway sits unused

Man dies at temporary Duncan tent site for homeless

First Nations man died at The Mound site

No doctor assisted death allowed at Hamlets in Duncan

Faith-based company that owns facility believes in sanctity of life

UPDATED: Minivan crashes into Merchants building in downtown Duncan

There is no word yet on the cause of the crash.

All community COVID-19 outbreaks declared over in B.C.

Abbotsford manufacturer cleared by Dr. Bonnie Henry

B.C. First Nations vow to keep fighting after Trans Mountain pipeline appeal denied

Squamish Nation, Tsleil-Waututh Nation and Coldwater Indian Band made the application

‘Queue jumpers’ not welcome in B.C. as COVID-19 U.S. cases rise: Horgan

Premier Horgan said he’s heard concerns that Americans have stopped at Vancouver hotels instead of heading to their destination

US officer resigns after photos, connected to death of black man in 2019, surface

Elijah McClain died, last summer, after police placed him in a chokehold

Black worker files discrimination complaint against Facebook

Oscar Veneszee, Jr. has worked as an operations program manager at Facebook since 2017

Nestle Canada selling bottled water business to local family-owned company

The Pure Life bottled water business is being sold to Ice River Springs

Major B.C. salmon farm tests new containment system to curb sea lice infestations

System “essentially eliminates” contact between wild and farmed fish stocks, says Cermaq

US unemployment falls to 11%, but new shutdowns are underway

President Donald Trump said the jobs report shows the economy is “roaring back”

Most Read