A meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada said he’s not surprised that many on Vancouver Island, including the Cowichan Valley, are in a “sour mood” so far this month.
That’s because, after many weeks of mostly cool and overcast weather in June, the weather pattern has continued to dominate so far in July.
Meteorologist Armel Castellan said the low-pressure system patterns that were passing over the southern half of the Island in June are emerging again, keeping the temperatures below seasonal under mostly overcast skies.
But Castellan said the conditions are likely only temporary, and the long-range forecast is still for above-average temperatures for much of the rest of the summer.
He said the weather this summer is being impacted by the weakening of the El Nino system that has strongly influenced weather patterns on the coast and around the world for the last couple of years.
However, as the El Nino dissipates, La Nina conditions are taking its place, so the region is currently in a period of transition in global weather patterns that could take several months.
“We are just now beginning to ascertain the impacts of this change,” Castellan said. “But we still expect higher than normal temperatures in the Vancouver Island area in the next two months.”
As for the ongoing drought in the Cowichan Valley and eastern Vancouver Island, Castellan said it’s also “uncertain” at this time if the region will receive more precipitation in the coming weeks to dampen its effects.
The low rainfall and high temperatures that were experienced in late June saw the region descend into a Level 4 drought as of June 28 and has caused the closure of most local streams and rivers to angling.
But Castellan said there’s no “big precipitation event” forecast anytime soon, despite the erratic weather conditions experienced recently.
“Rain at this time is a fluid thing that’s hard to forecast,” he said.
“But we do expect more organized precipitation by the last part of this week.”